Francise By Isaac Asimov

Joe Bednorz wrote:

> On Sat, 16 Jun 2007 21:07:37 +0100, GSV Three Minds in a Can wrote in
> <bbymUpAJMEdGFA5p.DeleteThis@from.is.invalid>:
>
> >Bitstring <46743E41.D2BCFF03.DeleteThis@pop.dcn.davis.ca.us>, from the wonderful
> >person Tim Bruening <tsbrueni.DeleteThis@pop.dcn.davis.ca.us> said
> >>In this short story, Multivac choses one person to "vote" on behalf on
> >>the entire electorate. By interviewing that person, Multivac can
> >>determine the outcomes of all the elections in the U.S.! For the 2008
> >>election, one Norman Muller is chosen. Early in the story, his wife
> >>tells him that only men between 20 and 60 are eligible. Why would
> >>Multivac limit the francise to men, and men between 20 and 60?
> >
> >The story is actually 'Franchise', note the h, and is one of IA's poorer
> >efforts. You could assume he limited it to males aged 20-60 just to
> >P-off the young, the old, and the female.
> >
> >More likely MVac had already determined, from past data, that a male in
> >that age range was going to give the closest to 'representative'
> >answers. Pretty hokey premise all round - I think we've just about
> >reached the smallest sensible sample sizes already, and it isn't '1'.
>
> Still a nicely told story.
>
> "What do you think of the price of eggs?"

I am rooting for Muller to vote for Barak Obama!
 >> Stay informed about: Francise By Isaac Asimov 

On Sat, 16 Jun 2007 21:07:37 +0100, GSV Three Minds in a Can wrote in
<bbymUpAJMEdGFA5p.DeleteThis@from.is.invalid>:

>Bitstring <46743E41.D2BCFF03.DeleteThis@pop.dcn.davis.ca.us>, from the wonderful
>person Tim Bruening <tsbrueni.DeleteThis@pop.dcn.davis.ca.us> said
>>In this short story, Multivac choses one person to "vote" on behalf on
>>the entire electorate. By interviewing that person, Multivac can
>>determine the outcomes of all the elections in the U.S.! For the 2008
>>election, one Norman Muller is chosen. Early in the story, his wife
>>tells him that only men between 20 and 60 are eligible. Why would
>>Multivac limit the francise to men, and men between 20 and 60?
>
>The story is actually 'Franchise', note the h, and is one of IA's poorer
>efforts. You could assume he limited it to males aged 20-60 just to
>P-off the young, the old, and the female.
>
>More likely MVac had already determined, from past data, that a male in
>that age range was going to give the closest to 'representative'
>answers. Pretty hokey premise all round - I think we've just about
>reached the smallest sensible sample sizes already, and it isn't '1'.


Still a nicely told story.

"What do you think of the price of eggs?"



--
Links to Gigabytes of free books on line, emphasis on SF:
<http://www.mindspring.com/~jbednorz/Free/>
All the Best,
Joe Bednorz
 >> Stay informed about: Francise By Isaac Asimov 

GSV Three Minds in a Can wrote:
> Bitstring <46743E41.D2BCFF03 DeleteThis @pop.dcn.davis.ca.us>, from the wonderful
> person Tim Bruening <tsbrueni DeleteThis @pop.dcn.davis.ca.us> said
>> In this short story, Multivac choses one person to "vote" on behalf
>> on the entire electorate. By interviewing that person, Multivac can
>> determine the outcomes of all the elections in the U.S.! For the
>> 2008 election, one Norman Muller is chosen. Early in the story, his
>> wife tells him that only men between 20 and 60 are eligible. Why
>> would Multivac limit the francise to men, and men between 20 and 60?
>
> The story is actually 'Franchise', note the h, and is one of IA's
> poorer efforts. You could assume he limited it to males aged 20-60
> just to P-off the young, the old, and the female.
>
> More likely MVac had already determined, from past data, that a male
> in that age range was going to give the closest to 'representative'
> answers. Pretty hokey premise all round - I think we've just about
> reached the smallest sensible sample sizes already, and it isn't '1'.

Besides which, if you have enough data to give you that level of confidence
in identifying the person, you pretty much know which way he'll vote, in any
case.

--
Mark Blunden.
 >> Stay informed about: Francise By Isaac Asimov 

On Sat, 16 Jun 2007 21:07:37 +0100, GSV Three Minds in a Can
<GSV.RemoveThis@quik.clara.co.uk> wrote:

>Bitstring <46743E41.D2BCFF03.RemoveThis@pop.dcn.davis.ca.us>, from the wonderful
>person Tim Bruening <tsbrueni.RemoveThis@pop.dcn.davis.ca.us> said
>>In this short story, Multivac choses one person to "vote" on behalf on
>>the entire electorate. By interviewing that person, Multivac can
>>determine the outcomes of all the elections in the U.S.! For the 2008
>>election, one Norman Muller is chosen. Early in the story, his wife
>>tells him that only men between 20 and 60 are eligible. Why would
>>Multivac limit the francise to men, and men between 20 and 60?
>
>The story is actually 'Franchise', note the h, and is one of IA's poorer
>efforts. You could assume he limited it to males aged 20-60 just to
>P-off the young, the old, and the female.
>
>More likely MVac had already determined, from past data, that a male in
>that age range was going to give the closest to 'representative'
>answers. Pretty hokey premise all round - I think we've just about
>reached the smallest sensible sample sizes already, and it isn't '1'.

Isn't it 5? Homer, Marge, Bart, Lisa, and Maggie?
 >> Stay informed about: Francise By Isaac Asimov 

GSV Three Minds in a Can wrote:
> Bitstring <46743E41.D2BCFF03.TakeThisOut@pop.dcn.davis.ca.us>, from the wonderful
> person Tim Bruening <tsbrueni.TakeThisOut@pop.dcn.davis.ca.us> said
> >In this short story, Multivac choses one person to "vote" on behalf on
> >the entire electorate. By interviewing that person, Multivac can
> >determine the outcomes of all the elections in the U.S.! For the 2008
> >election, one Norman Muller is chosen. Early in the story, his wife
> >tells him that only men between 20 and 60 are eligible. Why would
> >Multivac limit the francise to men, and men between 20 and 60?
>
> The story is actually 'Franchise', note the h, and is one of IA's poorer
> efforts. You could assume he limited it to males aged 20-60 just to
> P-off the young, the old, and the female.
>
> More likely MVac had already determined, from past data, that a male in
> that age range was going to give the closest to 'representative'
> answers. Pretty hokey premise all round - I think we've just about
> reached the smallest sensible sample sizes already, and it isn't '1'.


I would expect the National Organization of Women to be up in arms
about limiting
the franchise to men!!!!
 >> Stay informed about: Francise By Isaac Asimov 

GSV Three Minds in a Can wrote:
> Bitstring <46743E41.D2BCFF03.RemoveThis@pop.dcn.davis.ca.us>, from the wonderful
> person Tim Bruening <tsbrueni.RemoveThis@pop.dcn.davis.ca.us> said
> >In this short story, Multivac choses one person to "vote" on behalf on
> >the entire electorate. By interviewing that person, Multivac can
> >determine the outcomes of all the elections in the U.S.! For the 2008
> >election, one Norman Muller is chosen. Early in the story, his wife
> >tells him that only men between 20 and 60 are eligible. Why would
> >Multivac limit the francise to men, and men between 20 and 60?
>
> The story is actually 'Franchise', note the h, and is one of IA's poorer
> efforts. You could assume he limited it to males aged 20-60 just to
> P-off the young, the old, and the female.
>
> More likely MVac had already determined, from past data, that a male in
> that age range was going to give the closest to 'representative'
> answers. Pretty hokey premise all round - I think we've just about
> reached the smallest sensible sample sizes already, and it isn't '1'.

In the "Franchise" universe, did Multivac take 5 weeks to determine
the outcome
of the 2000 Presidential election after interviewing the one voter,
who was very
evenly split in his feelings about the Presidential election?
 >> Stay informed about: Francise By Isaac Asimov 

In article <46751246$0$8729$ed2619ec@ptn-nntp-reader02.plus.net>, Mark
Blunden says...

> GSV Three Minds in a Can wrote:

> > More likely MVac had already determined, from past data, that a male
> > in that age range was going to give the closest to 'representative'
> > answers. Pretty hokey premise all round - I think we've just about
> > reached the smallest sensible sample sizes already, and it isn't '1'.
>
> Besides which, if you have enough data to give you that level of confidence
> in identifying the person, you pretty much know which way he'll vote, in any
> case.

You are nearing the beginning of wisdom, little organic computer.
 >> Stay informed about: Francise By Isaac Asimov 

GSV Three Minds in a Can <GSV.RemoveThis@quik.clara.co.uk> writes:

>The story is actually 'Franchise', note the h, and is one of IA's poorer
>efforts. You could assume he limited it to males aged 20-60 just to
>P-off the young, the old, and the female.

>More likely MVac had already determined, from past data, that a male in
>that age range was going to give the closest to 'representative'
>answers. Pretty hokey premise all round - I think we've just about
>reached the smallest sensible sample sizes already, and it isn't '1'.

Objection answered in the story, actually. The Voter isn't
needed for pretty much any of the projections; Multivac is able to
estimate based on statistical analysis pretty near all the races and
questions in all the elections nationwide. What the Voter is needed
for is just that despite it all, there will be *some* cases where no
projection can pin down the winner, and they have to decide somehow.
Picking a relentlessly average person to serve the roll of coin toss
is, arguably, fairer than tossing in a random number generator.

Note that Asimov was inspired to this story by the 1952 election
in which CBS and Remington Rand's ENIAC projected -- on the basis of the
first 3,398,745 votes case -- that Eisenhower would beat Stevenson by
32,915,049 votes to 28,986,436, and 438 electoral votes to 89. It gave
an estimate of better than 99-to-one odds of that prediction being right.

This was such a suprise compared to polls that CBS didn't believe
it, and they created a phony ENIAC projection with a closer race. In the
actual election, Eisenhower won by 34,075,529 votes to 27,375,090, with
442 electoral votes to 89.

After a demonstration like that of the power of a really most
primitive computer hitting a bullseye that nearly, it's hard *not* to
forsee the day where just a single person is all the early returns that
are needed to call in the rest.

--
Joseph Nebus
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 >> Stay informed about: Francise By Isaac Asimov